Where the term comes from

Tal Ben-Shahar, who lectured on positive psychology at Harvard, used the phrase in his 2007 book Happier, where he describes it as “the false belief that reaching a valued destination can sustain happiness.” He is usually credited with it, and it spread through self-help writing rather than through research. Studies rarely use the term. The closest measured idea is the impact bias: people overestimate how intensely and for how long a future event will affect how they feel.

What the research shows

Career milestones show the pattern. In a study at a large US university, assistant professors expected that receiving tenure would leave them at 5.90 on a 7-point happiness scale over the following five years. Colleagues who had received tenure within the past five years reported 5.24. In the same study, professors who had been granted tenure were not significantly happier than those who had been denied it, although the authors note that few of the latter took part.

Researchers call the two main mechanisms focalism and sense-making. Picturing a future success, people focus on the event itself and forget the deadlines, errands and other people that will fill the days after it. And once a good event has been explained, it starts to feel ordinary and loses some of its pull. In studies with sports fans, thinking first about everything else that would fill the following days made their predictions about a win or a loss more modest. None of this means goals are pointless: the error lies in the expected size and length of the lift, not in having the goal.

How it differs from related terms

The arrival fallacy is a forecast made before a goal is reached. The hedonic treadmill describes what happens afterward, as people adapt to the new situation. Post-achievement depression is a mood some people report after a win; the arrival fallacy can come before it, but expecting a goal to make you happy is not a sign of depression. Our page on why success feels empty covers what tends to help when a win lands flat.

Related terms

Hedonic Treadmill: what happens after a change, as feelings drift back toward their usual level.

Post-Achievement Depression: the low mood some people report after reaching a goal.

High-Functioning Burnout: burnout in someone whose results still look fine.